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Started by MsCharDonnay on 16-Jul-2016 16:54:58
How long do you think Theresa May will last as PM?

She started with a seemingly impossible task (to implement a Brexit that does not break up the union, with minimal adverse economic effects and no more immigration)

She had a legacy of "Brexit" politicians waiting around to say they would have done it better

She has made some very poor choices with regard to her cabinet

I know she has not been in place for more than a few days, but how long do you think she'll last?

Will she win an election? If so, when will that election be? Do you think she will resign or face a leadership battle? If so, why and when?

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Lawlsie - 16 Jul 2016 17:08:45 (#1 of 5315)

I predicted she wd get it last July but my crystal ball is giving me nothing atm

LemonGrass - 16 Jul 2016 17:10:39 (#2 of 5315)

She'll last until 2020 when Corbyn wins with a landslide!!!!

MsCharDonnay - 16 Jul 2016 17:14:06 (#3 of 5315)

Hmmmm

I like to think that Boris and Andrea will find it difficult to cope with their promotions and drop out fairly soon.

May seems to have made a lot of enemies. There must be enough of them for another leadership challenge by remain elements, maybe led by Osborne.

Lawlsie - 16 Jul 2016 17:16:18 (#4 of 5315)

Agree. Things are not secure and stable

col2001 - 16 Jul 2016 17:16:19 (#5 of 5315)

I thought many people in the Labour Party and the Tory Party wanted to be next leader but one.

MsCharDonnay - 16 Jul 2016 17:17:32 (#6 of 5315)

You can't blame them really.

Maybe that's what Cameron and Osbo were plotting over Portuguese pastries in Notting Hill.

foxybrown - 16 Jul 2016 17:20:54 (#7 of 5315)

Does Osbourne have support in the party? He doesn't seem to have support outside.

MsCharDonnay - 16 Jul 2016 17:25:35 (#8 of 5315)

I think he does within the party. He's had years to make the right kind of allies.

There are a lot of disgruntled experienced politicians who have just got the sack from the new PM. A lot of remain MPs.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part.

TigerPaws - 16 Jul 2016 17:27:22 (#9 of 5315)

It depends how costly Brexit's going to be in terms of time and resources depleting political engagement with other departments, producing backlogs and stagnation.

She has a sixteen majority.

Brunothecat - 16 Jul 2016 17:38:18 (#10 of 5315)

2020

Labour have no incentive to turf the Tories out until they have at least made a start on clearing up the godawful mess they have made over brexit. Whoever takes this on is likely to pay dearly further down the line when it becomes clear that the economic cost of barricading foreigners out is going to be pretty awful for those who expected to gain from it. Better the Tories begin the negotiating process then be replaced in 2020 by a social democratic Labour under Corbyn or a successor than hold an election now and risk flooding the Commons with brexit obsessed panderers to the xenophobes.

MsCharDonnay - 16 Jul 2016 17:42:23 (#11 of 5315)

So "enough rope" for the Brexit fantasy

Brunothecat - 16 Jul 2016 17:47:40 (#12 of 5315)

What is the choice?

Labour campaign to bin the referendum. May does bugger all for just long enough to label Labour as completely antidemocratic (I can't believe I'm typing this now) then invokes this clause 50 anyway. The fact isn they are not in a position to interfere forcibly until things start to come up in Parliament, then allied with either half of the split Tory party they an block the government provided their own backbenchers don't vote the other way out of sheer spite against Corbyn. Which they are unlikely to do if it would precipitate Britain's exit from the EU.

clammy - 16 Jul 2016 17:51:43 (#13 of 5315)

#12, I' m still coming to terms with Tangent more or less admitting he believes in elitism.

RosyLovelady - 16 Jul 2016 17:54:03 (#14 of 5315)

Did he really say the House of Commons was at its finest (dread words anyway) when it was an oligarchy?

Brunothecat - 16 Jul 2016 17:55:19 (#15 of 5315)

#12, I' m still coming to terms with Tangent more or less admitting he believes in elitism.

I see the kind of elitism he appears to be describing as possibly useful in academia, science, medecine but not running a country of tens of millions of people.

Earworm - 16 Jul 2016 17:58:25 (#16 of 5315)

"I think he does within the party. He's had years to make the right kind of allies."

Does he really? He was a great advocate of Remain (coupled with his threat of a "Punishment budget" in the event of Brexit)? Surely if he actually believed he had the support of many Tory MPs he would have entered the recent contest. Cameron was by far his biggest supporter.

MsCharDonnay - 16 Jul 2016 18:02:28 (#17 of 5315)

I think he didn't enter for a reason - too associated with Cameron? Didn't want to deal with the Brexit shit? - but had hopes of being leader in due course.

Brunothecat - 16 Jul 2016 18:03:19 (#18 of 5315)

It would be interesting to know how many Tory MPs are vociferous critics of immigration and the EU but still secretly hoped brexit would lose. We are pretty certain that is the case with Boris, chances are he isn't alone. Killing the whipping boy wasn't part of the plan.

col2001 - 16 Jul 2016 18:40:00 (#19 of 5315)

I' m still coming to terms with Tangent more or less admitting he believes in elitism.

Many do, clammy. Shadders, for another.

A purist view of Democracy is not for the sentimental. As with atheism, there are no consolations. But I was surprised.

clammy - 16 Jul 2016 19:08:55 (#20 of 5315)

Must admit Col2001. It left me sad and somewhat flummoxed.

Shadders didn't surprise me,

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