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Started by tooldtocare on Apr 29, 2011 2:42:41 AM
The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?

The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?

Energy information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the US government

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html

The above report indicates that the US will be using primarily oil as our main energy source through 2030.

The world's total declared reserves are 1,317,400,000,000 barrels (January 2007).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

World oil consumption 2005 is 80,290,000 barrels per day or 29,305,850,000 per year

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2174rank.html

Dividing annual consumption into total reserves gives us 44.9 years of oil supply at the current consumption rate.

That was eleven (11)years ago, we are not changing your habits and this spells doom for us all.

Do you have any suggestions--?

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tooldtocare - 29 Apr 2011 02:52:05 (#1 of 3141)

North Sea is running too dry to meet target

Wednesday July 4, 2007

http://environment.guardian.co.uk/energy/story/0,,
2117952,00.html


The real casus belli: peak oil

Tuesday June 26, 2007

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2
111529,00.html


Science Panel Finds Fault With Estimates of Coal Supply

Published: June 21, 2007 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/21/business/21coal.
html


Chevron announces that they now have 11.8 years of oil left at current production levels after aquiring Unocal reserves

07/08/05

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/11/business/worldbu
siness/11unocal.html?pagewanted=2&adxnnl=1&
adxnnlx=1123732924-48wR07Ekayb0gi0r7b8l9Q


An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise

Published: June 12, 2004

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/12/business/12RESE.
html?pagewanted=3&hp


"The decline of oil and gas will affect the world population more than climate change"

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo
bal.warming/
' rel='nofollow'>http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo
bal.warming/


In January 2001, the U.S.

Department of Energy estimated the world's supply of unexploited oil reserves the world supply of oil will be totally exhausted 35 years from now (June 2003).

http://members.aol.com/mpwright9/oil.html

World oil and gas 'running out'

Thursday, October 2, 2003 Posted: 1245 GMT ( 8:45 PM HKT)

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo
bal.warming/
' rel='nofollow'>http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo
bal.warming/


The Oil Crunch

Published: May 7, 2004

The question, instead, is when the trend in oil prices will turn decisively upward. That upward turn is inevitable as a growing world economy confronts a resource in limited supply. But when will it happen? Maybe it already has.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/07/opinion/07KRUG.h
tml


Natural gas markets undergo turbulent transition as domestic production declines

Tuesday, December 16, 2003

http://www.statesman.com/business/content/auto/epa
per/editions/tuesday/business_f3edda2474a06071009b.
html


"Texas' oil resource is pretty well picked over," http://www.statesman.com/specialreports/content/sp
ecialreports/energy/0617oil.html
' rel='nofollow'>http://www.statesman.com/specialreports/content/sp
ecialreports/energy/0617oil.html


Oman's Oil Yield Long in Decline, Shell Data Show

Published: April 8, 2004

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/08/business/08OIL.h
tml?hp


Half of Texas’s oil wells have dried up in the past 40 years and there are very few new ones.

http://www.statesman.com/specialreports/content/sp
ecialreports/energy/0617oil.html
' rel='nofollow'>http://www.statesman.com/specialreports/content/sp
ecialreports/energy/0617oil.html


Tight Oil Supply Won't Ease Soon

Published: May 16, 2004

Two dollars for a gallon of gas? Get used to it. High fuel prices are here to stay, at least for the near future, because no relief is in sight for tight oil supplies.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/16/business/16OIL.h
tml?pagewanted=2&hp&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=10
84724567-pWSKI+RB9bShA5oXGRQi4w


The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?

MmaPerez - 29 Apr 2011 03:03:02 (#2 of 3141)

Be prepared for more petroleum-guzzling wars over oil. Wear three-layers of wool in winter. Lots of obvious things. Put self in a position to be as self-sufficient as possible, if possible learn some of the stuff our great-grandparents got up to.

Last year some friends' had a wood-burner installed in their home, but on a cold winter night, they reckon it takes 5 small hardwood logs to warm their lounge. Realistically, if everyone did this, the local woods would be gone in a couple of months. So, three layers of wool.

Anchorman - 29 Apr 2011 18:48:34 (#3 of 3141)

The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?



As oil current oil reserves start to run out the price will rise. This will make it viable to access oils that are currently financially unviable to exploit. eg the oil shales of Canada which until recently were a non starter cost wise. Today they are viable and as the price rises they will become more so.

Also as prices for oil rises at some point it will be cheaper to use other sources such as elecricity produced bt nuclear/renewables to power cars.

There are several mass market electric/hybrid cars available are many more are planned.

As prices rise to the point where it begins to really hurt consumers they will move to higher mpg cars such as the VW Blue motion small 5 seater hatchback which averages about 70 mpg (more than double the average mpg of cars in the Uk and 3 times as efficient as the average US car)

If we planned a move away from oil at say 2-3% per annum it could be achieved easily. Unfortunately we tend to wait until a crisis occurs before taking action so there will be troubles ahead.

Anchorman - 29 Apr 2011 18:50:35 (#4 of 3141)

Two dollars for a gallon of gas?



In the Uk we're currently paying about £6 per gallon and the world hasn't fallen apart.

The Us has a long way to go before they're anywhere near US prices

tooldtocare - 30 Apr 2011 01:58:28 (#5 of 3141)

Libya will be an interesting place to watch.

  • Libya’s current production rate is 1.8 million barrels of oil a day
  • At that rate Libya will exhaust all its reserves within 63 years
  • Existing oil fields undergoing a 7–8% decline rate
They have highways and freeways and use cars and trucks just like the rest of us do. But up until now gas was pretty much free. If there is going to be a drive to manufacture electric and hybrid cars for local consumption now is the time for Libya to use its cash reserves and invest in local production of the next generation power systems. At least in the US we have the cash and will to build a new future for America and the people are willing to do their part too. Anyway I hope people are trying to think this through? So far I have read some great posts from others in this forum and they have been great reading. Thank you all for participating in this discussion—

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Libya

---Let the discussion continue---

The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?

(:-

tooldtocare - 30 Apr 2011 02:07:55 (#6 of 3141)

Anchorman - Apr 29, 2011 6:48:34 PM ( #3 of 5)

Unfortunately we tend to wait until a crisis occurs before taking action so there will be troubles ahead

I don’t think the civilized world has ever experienced what is ahead of us. For some Mad Max will become a reality. For others it will be a booming industrial rebirth retooling old factories and building new ones powered by renewable fuels. This saddens me and gives me hope all at the same time. I can only be grateful that I am an American.

(:-

Hamilcar - 30 Apr 2011 02:11:14 (#7 of 3141)

The last litre of oil will most likely be used by an American tank.

tooldtocare - 30 Apr 2011 02:56:38 (#8 of 3141)

Hamilcar - Apr 30, 2011 2:11:14 AM ( #7 of 7)

The last litre of oil will most likely be used by an American tank.

Not likely. The American factory that makes the American tank is being shut down. Believe it or not America is getting out of the war business.

M1 Abrams The M1 Abrams is a third-generationmain battle tank produced in theUnited States. It has been reported that the military is planning to close the Lima tank plant from 2013 to 2016 in an effort to save over US$1 billion ; it would be reopened in 2017 to upgrade existing tanks. General Dynamics Land Systems, who operate the factory and oppose the closure, argue that suspension of operations will increase long-term costs and reduce flexibility

The tracked M8 Armored Gun System was conceived as a possible supplement for the Abrams in U.S. service for low-intensity conflict in the early '90s. Prototypes were made but the program was canceled.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams

Tanks are becoming obsolete. TheY are easy to blow up and hard to hide.

(:-

Anchorman - 30 Apr 2011 11:51:29 (#9 of 3141)

Believe it or not America is getting out of the war business.



I simply do not believe that.

War equipment is one of the USA's biggest industries ..they type od equipment they manufacture will change but if the US is to remain a major player in the world it simply cannot get out of the arms business.

Anchorman - 30 Apr 2011 11:52:30 (#10 of 3141)

Are you new to NTT tooldtocare or a new poster.

If the latter welcome.

Post by deleted user
Anchorman - 30 Apr 2011 13:38:52 (#12 of 3141)

existing pretty much to do nothing but support their own existence



Pretty much what all life does,is it not?

TauCeti - 03 May 2011 12:24:25 (#13 of 3141)

Oil is notgoing to run out anytime soon; what will run out is the profitability of oil, thus that industry will come to an end....

It happened with coal in the UK and other countries.

NakedLunch - 03 May 2011 16:25:12 (#14 of 3141)

I'm sure fossil fuels will cease to be economically viable to extract soon enough - but the peak oil brigade are such obsessive massive post ments that I'm reassured it won't happen as fast as they want.

It's similar to religious ments with huge screaming posts designed to silence the doubt in their own heads.

vikingdevil - 03 May 2011 16:26:55 (#15 of 3141)

The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?



Not having to worry about the Middle East so much.

Or do people believe that science will have not found a proven replacement to oil before it "runs out".

VD

manlee - 03 May 2011 16:32:04 (#16 of 3141)

Now why didn't I see this before?

so what are we going to do next-?

Use more sustainable methods of agriculture. Cut down on suburban sprawl. Buy guns.

NakedLunch - 03 May 2011 16:43:16 (#17 of 3141)

Use more sustainable methods of agriculture. Cut down on suburban sprawl. Buy guns.



All above require a reduced population. Since no one has the bottle to do this through birth control we will use guns instead.

TauCeti - 03 May 2011 17:23:59 (#18 of 3141)

ther are many replacements for fossil fuel, some vbiable some not; a great change in machinery though would be called for, as internal combustion engines only work with fossil fuels afaik

On the other hand there is an unlimited fuel supply, or three, so if the capitalist profiteering scum stops accruing all the welathit canin the least possible time - which is what oil is all about - thenperhaps humanity still hasa chance of living better; problem is that sunlight wind and running water are diffult to put a meter on when it comes to producing electricity.

but the profiteering must stop.

NakedLunch - 03 May 2011 17:39:54 (#19 of 3141)

Difficult to know where to start with a rant so full of typos and factual errors Tau:

internal combustion engines only work with fossil fuels afaik



Apart from methanol, ethanol, biofuel, vegetable oils and chip fat.

problem is that sunlight wind and running water are diffult to put a meter on when it comes to producing electricity.



The meter is at each home and charges for each unit of electricity used. It doesn't matter whether the electricity was generated using the blood of hippy babies or essence of patchouli oil. Sorry, your dream of peak oil destroying capitalism so we all live off daisies is just fantasy.

manlee - 03 May 2011 17:54:04 (#20 of 3141)

All above require a reduced population. Since no one has the bottle to do this through birth control we will use guns instead.

Not necessarily. Small-scale agriculture is more productive than the vast fields we currently use. It just requires more manpower (and is therefore less profitable).

Perennial agro-forestry is a great example of using minimal input energy to get great returns. But it's a longer term proposition, so get planting your walnuts and chestnuts now. Before the trees mature, other plants can be planted between rows too (and/or animals can graze).

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