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Started by DonkeyOT on Dec 11, 2018 11:23:16 AM
How Long do You Foresee the EU Continuing?

I personally cannot envisage it lasting in perpetuity, say forty or fifty years at most. What d'you reckon?

Small seeds of dissent are already showing, I think

kokolores - 11 Dec 2018 11:24:41 (#1 of 24)

Forty or fifty years? That's a big crystal ball.

virgil5 - 11 Dec 2018 11:26:21 (#2 of 24)


GoodKingTenesmus - 11 Dec 2018 11:29:15 (#3 of 24)

Yeah, they're all seeing how well Brexit is going and can't wait to get some of that.

thisonehasalittlehat - 11 Dec 2018 11:33:51 (#4 of 24)

I don't know but I reckon longer than brexit will last.

HerrWalrus - 11 Dec 2018 11:38:29 (#5 of 24)

All such things come to an end at some point. But it's beginning to look like the EU will outlast the UK (containing Scotland and Northern Ireland).

Arjuna - 11 Dec 2018 11:46:07 (#6 of 24)

I think it will easily last another fifty years although the form could change, the most pertinent question would be - will the Euro survive and prosper? If not how does Europe look, the core countries remaining withina tight grouping with others on the fringe?

rgtstoppedcounting - 11 Dec 2018 11:49:08 (#7 of 24)

the most pertinent question would be - will the Euro survive and prosper?

It can't in the absence of fiscal union, and that isn't going to happen because there are no votes for it in the states that matter.

HerrWalrus - 11 Dec 2018 11:55:30 (#8 of 24)

The EU will outlast the UK containing Scotland and Northern Ireland. I suspect the Euro will do so too, if only because people prefer by far to earn valuable Euros and not pesetas, lire or Zlotzy... Of course that may change if the Germans feel they'd be better going back to the DM.

DonkeyOT - 11 Dec 2018 11:56:50 (#9 of 24)

No. 1 - Forty or fifty years? That's a big crystal ball.

Well it sort of is - but not in the context of the entire histories of all the European countries, you know Greeks, Romans, Anglo-Saxons, Vikings, Normans, Nazis etc.

southwesterly - 11 Dec 2018 12:01:06 (#10 of 24)

I tend to see it as carrying on in name for a few decades but declining all the while, no doubt with the occasional bursts of promise. It should preserve the economic zone. All the political and other stuff is already being ignored, and the nations are more at each other's throats than has been the case in my lifetime.

If only we had realised we could stay in and ignore the rules rather than bothering about them!

That is my optimistic view. If the Euro collapses, then all bets are off. Presumably Germany and its northern neighbours would then consolidate and leave the others to their woes.

kokolores - 11 Dec 2018 12:03:43 (#11 of 24)

Greeks, Romans, Anglo-Saxons, Vikings, Normans, Nazis etc.

That's a bit of a mixed salad of histories though. The last one on your list, Nazi Germany, only lasted 12 horrible years although the original plan had a timescale of a thousand.

DonkeyOT - 11 Dec 2018 12:08:54 (#12 of 24)

No. 10 - GPWM

Whilst I don't think the EU will last forever, I think the UK's interests are better served in it, rather than out. Better in the tent pissing out rather than out of the tent being pissed on, to paraphrase the elegant old cliché.

machiavelli - 11 Dec 2018 12:09:18 (#13 of 24)

1000 years.

Hilary - 11 Dec 2018 12:11:33 (#14 of 24)

It is possible that Italy will bring the EU down even in the next year or so, but I think that is unlikely. Much more likely is that the collapse of the EU will be brought above by either a far-left or far-right govt in France, following the failure of Macron's centrist reform programme which we are now witnessing.

I expect a far-left/far-right runoff in the 2022 Presidential race, probably resulting in a far-left victory. If the EU does contrive to survive that, which seems implausible, it will definitely not survive the far-right's victory in 2027.

sqeezy - 11 Dec 2018 12:12:41 (#15 of 24)

Who would you least mind being fucked up the arse by? Russia, China or the USA? Apparently the current answer is Brussels, despite remaining in the EU being the only no-fuck option.

DonkeyOT - 11 Dec 2018 12:14:12 (#16 of 24)

# 15

More or less Jean Monnet's prediction.

Except Monnet worded it a bit more elegantly.

virgil5 - 11 Dec 2018 12:18:49 (#17 of 24)

Europe will not be able to afford taking care of all the immigrants who will be fleeing global warming.

That will mean the collapse of the EU, and/or a takeover by the right unless Europe takes very strong measures to limit immigration.

DonkeyOT - 11 Dec 2018 12:19:22 (#18 of 24)

Another GPWM.

kokolores - 11 Dec 2018 12:22:23 (#19 of 24)

all the immigrants who will be fleeing global warming

Many immigrants are fleeing global warring.

DonkeyOT - 11 Dec 2018 12:25:09 (#20 of 24)

# 17 - Unless Europe takes very strong measures to limit immigration.

And global warming.

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