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Started by GyratingTrampoline on Feb 4, 2020 11:20:13 PM
Irish election - Sinn Fein currently ahead in the polls

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/04/irel
and-election-sinn-fein-takes-poll-lead-five-days-before-vote


Is this part of the loosely defined 'populist ascendancy' the guardian likes to bang on about?

Or the start of the next phase in Ireland's history?

Or nothing much because the big 2 boring parties always win?

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Shadrack22 - 08 Feb 2020 22:07:30 (#1 of 45)

Irish exit poll:

FG: 22.4%

SF: 22.3%

FF: 22.2%

Verdigris - 08 Feb 2020 22:14:42 (#2 of 45)

Cluck me. That's close.

OldLefty - 08 Feb 2020 22:18:15 (#3 of 45)

Is that in all seats, or just the ones where SF is standing?

Shadrack22 - 08 Feb 2020 22:28:44 (#4 of 45)

The poll was taken today at 250 locations across the State, among 5,376 respondents who had just voted. It has a margin of error of 1.3 per cent.

If these figures are reproduced when the votes are counted on Sunday, it means that the outcome of the election will depend entirely on the parties’ ability to turn their share of the vote into Dáil seats - with Sinn Féin likely to struggle to match Fianna Fáil’s and Fine Gael’s return in seats. A hung Dáil is virtually certain.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-exit-poll-ff-22-fg-22-sf-22-three-way-tie-for-share-of-vote-1.4166948

OldLefty - 08 Feb 2020 22:30:58 (#5 of 45)

Looks like all seats. They will be kicking themselves for not putting up more candidates.

DesEsseintes - 08 Feb 2020 22:39:20 (#6 of 45)

SF winning, especially among the young, but narrowly in the middle age groups too. Only the over 65s really anti.

dottie30 - 08 Feb 2020 22:47:06 (#7 of 45)

I'm surprised at FG's showing. The polls had them in third.

GyratingTrampoline - 08 Feb 2020 22:56:31 (#8 of 45)

A nominative question. According to news reports, SF are described as more left-wing than FF and FG. And the remaining 33% of votes apparently are going to the greens, various small left-wing parties and independents.

So why are FF and FG described as 'centrist'? This label would make sense if the votes that go elsewhere were going to their left and right, but this doesn't seem to be the case.

CinqueCento - 08 Feb 2020 22:56:51 (#9 of 45)

Never believe Irish polls; the pollsters have difficulty taking into account all the variables.

GyratingTrampoline - 08 Feb 2020 22:57:16 (#10 of 45)

Even exit polls?

CinqueCento - 08 Feb 2020 23:00:17 (#11 of 45)

Slightly more accurate and the IT has a good reputation, but SF can only take 42 seats max, because that’s all the candidates they ran. FG/FF ran multiple candidates so they will benefit from transfers.

dottie30 - 08 Feb 2020 23:20:55 (#12 of 45)

So why are FF and FG described as 'centrist'?



Centrist compared to the current UK Tory party perhaps.

But they are basically both conservative parties.

indlovubill - 08 Feb 2020 23:24:10 (#13 of 45)

The polls had them in third.



Shouldn't that be turd ?

dottie30 - 09 Feb 2020 10:38:15 (#14 of 45)

The Irish Indie has a rolling blog of the results.

Geeky interest is seeing how each area has voted.

Dublin West seems to have gone for Sinn Fein in a big way. Their candidate is way out in front. It's Varadkar's constituency. 50% of boxes counted.

levelgaze - 09 Feb 2020 10:39:27 (#15 of 45)

Shouldn't that be turd ?



Christ.

SinnerBoy - 09 Feb 2020 10:39:58 (#16 of 45)

That poll is within 1.3%, either way.

dottie30 - 09 Feb 2020 10:45:05 (#17 of 45)

But currently the results are supporting the exit poll.

Dublin generally seems to have gone big for Sinn Fein. While Dublin is left-leaning; it has traditionally sneered at populist nationalism. So there does seem to be a change in mindset.

SF is going to seriously regret not putting up more candidates.

dottie30 - 09 Feb 2020 12:05:53 (#18 of 45)

Reports now coming in to suggest that the exit poll appears to have underestimated the size of the Sinn Fein vote!

darkhorse - 09 Feb 2020 12:08:07 (#19 of 45)

Damnit, if only the UK had had the opportunity to elect as PM a British politician historically close to SF, which would have meant goodwill to ease the way in future EU trade negotiations.

dottie30 - 09 Feb 2020 12:10:49 (#20 of 45)

Um, Sinn Fein aren't going to have enough seats to make it the largest party. They didn't field enough candidates. So that was never going to be a possible scenario. Fianna Fail looks like it's going to be the largest party. It has already said it will refuse to go into government with Sinn Fein. Whether they'll be able to keep that pledge is what is in question. In Sinn Fein's best case, they'll only be a minority partner.

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