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Started by mingmong on Dec 23, 2020 11:15:50 PM
Deal back on?
Verdigris - 23 Dec 2020 23:16:57 (#1 of 34)

ITN seem to think it is a done deal.

mingmong - 23 Dec 2020 23:17:25 (#2 of 34)

Big relief if so

mingmong - 23 Dec 2020 23:17:56 (#3 of 34)

Wait till we see the details, etc.

Verdigris - 23 Dec 2020 23:18:43 (#4 of 34)

done = shit

mingmong - 23 Dec 2020 23:22:55 (#5 of 34)

almost certainly shitter than we had before, in the short-term at least

I still think the end-point to all this isn't a futile attempt to re-establish the 2016 status-quo, but rather to help define the new outer core of the EU as the inner core moves into ever closer harmony

col2001 - 23 Dec 2020 23:25:34 (#6 of 34)

CBA to link but the Guardian report has the most astonishing guff from the ERG.

col2001 - 23 Dec 2020 23:29:02 (#7 of 34)

#5 Fish - though it will dominate news - is irrelevant.

The evolution clause (the mechanism for imposing penalties for divergence) is the interesting one. Lots of committees but the question remains: who gets to judge? I reckon it'll be ECJ, but kept as quiet as possible.

widenation - 24 Dec 2020 02:31:16 (#8 of 34)

The only bookie running odds on 'deal signed before end 2020' is Smarkets:

Yes 1/33

No 10

TauCeti - 24 Dec 2020 04:35:35 (#9 of 34)

Distraction and misleading reporting.

mingmong - 24 Dec 2020 10:35:06 (#10 of 34)

In what sense Tau? The deal would seem to be on and this is (I would have thought) good news.

I'm slightly surprised by the muted reaction. Perhaps I shouldn't be.

HoHoHoff - 24 Dec 2020 10:36:59 (#11 of 34)

It ain't over till it's over. Too many false dawns already to muster any enthusiasm.

mingmong - 24 Dec 2020 10:45:25 (#12 of 34)

Fair enough. There is a certain sense of exhaustion, apart from anything else.

col2001 - 24 Dec 2020 11:17:14 (#13 of 34)

ming - good news that we're not actually jumping off a cliff?

Moschops - 24 Dec 2020 11:18:48 (#14 of 34)

Yeah, that is good news

Moschops - 24 Dec 2020 11:20:16 (#15 of 34)

Obviously it won't be as good from an economic perspective as remaining, and won't be as good from a FREEDOM SOVEREIGNTY perspective as no deal, but at least there is a deal of some sort

col2001 - 24 Dec 2020 11:21:06 (#16 of 34)

Yeah but for me it's more relief than 'good'.

We're still the country that headed for the cliff top.

Good news would be a sense that the country wasn't ever going near the clifftop again.

ATtcha - 24 Dec 2020 11:22:23 (#17 of 34)

The FT is guessing that under the current deal (EU preferential access), the UK is set to lose 4% of potential GDP over 15 years compared with membership.

They estimate that a a no deal Brexit would instead cost 6% of potential GDP loss.

mingmong - 24 Dec 2020 11:35:07 (#18 of 34)

the UK is set to lose 4% of potential GDP over 15 years compared with membership. They estimate that a a no deal Brexit would instead cost 6% of potential GDP loss.

Put in those terms it doesn't seem like such a big deal, but I think it understates quite how damaging a No Deal cliff-edge would have been (and could still be). Its one thing to say, decision X will increase the hardship in your life by 2% - quite another to say right now you are going to experience a concentrated dose of pain, that will equate to 1% of the pain you have ever experienced in your whole life: now jump off that cliff. The additional 1% you will suffer as you lie in hospital, gradually learn to use your legs again, and start to rebuild the sorry mess you made of your life.

The other thing about No Deal would have been the rancour. Borders being closed, navy frigates patrolling fishing water, macho 19th-century-style diplomacy. Really childish stupid stuff that is paid for in lost prosperity, energy and goodwill.

The deal will not be perfect, and will no doubt be contested and finessed over time. But the existance of deal is some proof of the possibility of grown-up, 21st century thinking on both sides of the negotiating table

HoHoHoff - 24 Dec 2020 11:37:14 (#19 of 34)

I still think there'll be an element of Navy patrolling going on.

mingmong - 24 Dec 2020 11:43:38 (#20 of 34)

I dare say. But it won't form part of a wider context of suspicion and mutual recrimination which would have been the fruit of a No Deal brexit; it will look more like a weird and mildly comic side-show like the Iceland Cod Wars in the 1970s

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