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Started by xDiggy on Jun 28, 2014 11:36:17 AM
WW1 100 years on - as it happened

100 years ago this morning, Franz Ferdinand has just been assassinated in Sarajevo.

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nac1001 - 28 Jun 2014 11:37:45 (#1 of 2723)

http://37.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m6ce6gewOk1rwjpn
yo1_500.jpg

DonkeyOT - 28 Jun 2014 11:39:51 (#2 of 2723)

He was in a Gräf und Stift.

xDiggy - 28 Jun 2014 11:41:30 (#3 of 2723)

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsWW1

https://twitter.com/IWM_Centenary

DonkeyOT - 28 Jun 2014 11:55:08 (#4 of 2723)

In a Radio 4 programme many years ago historian Prof. A J P Taylor repeatedly averred that if it were not for Gavrilo Princip's shots World War I probably would not have happened. And when you consider that Archduke Franz Ferdinand had already stated publicly that he would grant near-total autonomy for Bosnia and that his father Emperor Franz Josef died in 1916, you really have to wonder how very, very different Europe (and all the World, probably) would have been in the ensuing years, right up to today.

Taylor's words often cross my mind - but obviously we'll never know, but it makes for truly fascinating speculation.

JHobson - 28 Jun 2014 12:47:42 (#5 of 2723)

No, I think that even if Franz Ferdinand had not been shot, something else would have touched it off. The various sides had been inching towards war for years. The Agadir Crisis of 1911 almost brought about war, for example.

I seem to recall that Bismarck made a comment about "some damn thing in the Balkans" would set off a general war in Europe.

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uranrising - 28 Jun 2014 13:10:35 (#8 of 2723)

Deducing from this link

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Arc
hduke_Franz_Ferdinand_of_Austria#Assassination


that the assassination took place around 11 a.m.

xDiggy

Are any or all sources useable for this exercise, or is it already in print somewhere? Or are we to come up with new[er] stuff?

xDiggy - 28 Jun 2014 13:31:46 (#9 of 2723)

Historical process is far too big and powerful a force for individual action to make any substantial difference.

Yes and no. You'd hardly describe the actions of Hitler or Napoleon as inevitable historical forces.

Are any or all sources useable for this exercise, or is it already in print somewhere? Or are we to come up with new[er] stuff?

Anything that's an interesting contribution! I'll probably nick half of mine from Twitter.

xDiggy - 28 Jun 2014 13:41:15 (#10 of 2723)

2:30PM Berlin time. Kaiser Wilhelm is racing his yacht at Kiel when he's overhauled by a launch bringing news of the assassination. He takes it calmly and asks, "Would it be better to abandon the race?"

MaisonLazlique - 28 Jun 2014 13:47:44 (#11 of 2723)

This chap lasted until 1990:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaso_Čubrilović

DonkeyOT - 28 Jun 2014 14:53:27 (#12 of 2723)

Sarajevo July 28 1914 - Princip’s pistol jams and he is arrested, apart that the day passes relatively uneventfully. Kaiser Wilhelm II later departs for his annual holidays yachting in Norwegian waters; he enjoys a peaceful, uninterrupted vacation.

Austria has no reason to impose absurd demands on Serbia and does not launch a military incursion.

A couple of years elapse peacefully, Emperor Franz Josef kicks the bucket and his heir FF ascends the throne. A short while later he grants autonomy to Bosnia, this makes him very popular. The Turkish government crumbles, but nobody much cares.

The cruel injustices and wealth disparity of the Russian Empire finally bring about a successful revolution. In spite of its alliance with Russia France does not feel inclined to support the dim-witted tyrannical Czar, hence the Mensheviks form more just society, which eventually leads to a democratic republican government.

Some years after a young man called Adolf Hitler is accepted into Vienna Art College and later attains modest success as a landscape artist.

WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

uranrising - 28 Jun 2014 15:22:42 (#13 of 2723)

Events, dear boy, events.

browserbutton - 28 Jun 2014 15:30:16 (#14 of 2723)

Meanwhile in Sarajevo the Serbs unveil a statue of their hero:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/27/gavrilo-princip-statue_n_5538356.html

During the unveiling ceremony Friday, a young actor dressed as shooter Gavrilo Princip ran on the stage and fired two shots in the air. He then cited a poem Princip wrote in captivity which was followed by a Serbian folk dance. Later the actor pointed his gun into the air while posing in front of Princip's statue as people in the crowd shouted he should "shoot at NATO" or "shoot at the EU."

Happy St Vitus' Day.

http://images.smh.com.au/2014/06/28/5552348/140392
0976609.jpg-620x349.jpg

Ebadlun - 28 Jun 2014 16:15:59 (#15 of 2723)

This thread will be over by Christmas.

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Earworm - 28 Jun 2014 16:30:49 (#17 of 2723)

"his father Emperor Franz Josef"

His uncle, surely?

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xDiggy - 28 Jun 2014 17:00:23 (#20 of 2723)

When it came to the crunch the Kaiser didn't want war, but as with everything he did he was wildly inconsistent, and in the end the adults took over. By 1917 he was an irrelevance.

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