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Started by BallyMoney on 07-Sep-2015 16:24:12
The destabalisation of the Assad regime will go down as one of the west's biggest own goals of the last 50 years.

Syria was stable and multi faith and multi ethic ruled by a minority religious clan with no interest in religious strife. the Assad regime may not have been wonderful democrats but there was absolutely no reason to aid their downfall. Syria now longer exists and a genocidal brutal regious army have used teh vacum to extend their grip on northern Iraq aswell. The results of this fall out will be more war, division, religious and ethnic strife, more refugees for years to come.

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Yammoto - 11 Sep 2015 11:53:49 (#1 of 4025)

In fairness it wasn't at all clear when the protests started that Assad would fight the way he did. The risk for any other country is being on the wrong side of history.

It was Assad who put his army into his own cities, not the west.

Brunothecat - 11 Sep 2015 11:55:17 (#2 of 4025)

the Assad regime may not have been wonderful democrats

They used gas and chemical weapons against their own population did they not?

dottie30 - 11 Sep 2015 11:56:07 (#3 of 4025)

Apparently that's OK if they are 'secular'.

Arjuna - 11 Sep 2015 11:57:22 (#4 of 4025)

To be honest when the protests started, I supported them, who didn't? am I to blame too?

Intowntonight - 11 Sep 2015 11:59:21 (#5 of 4025)

New instructions from RT ?

Regimes like the Assads are never stable in the medium term:

they maintain a certain stability by a combination of terror and buying off or repressing any that might challenge them:

hence Assads dad destruction of Hama in 1982 when he was challenged by the MB - how many dead - 10,000 ?

These regimes are basically unstable in the long run: a big oil income and or subsidies helps them to glide along for a bit, whilst their PR depts. tell you how wonderful everything is - like the guardian travel features on Syria -all old world flower-garlanded count-yards, great coffee, historic sites, interviews with Mrs assad for vogue Magazine

The West (or some of it) bought the package , without seeing how rotten in was inside.

And now - the war in its 5th year, 250,000 dead and 10,000,000 refugees - the country destroyed, and may well be partitioned.

RoscoePColtrane - 11 Sep 2015 12:06:15 (#6 of 4025)

The people of Syria, or a lot of them, wanted democracy and change. They weren't manipulated into this by the West, it was an internal thing. Should we have actively supported Assad in pursuit of 'stability'? I think a lot of people would have had a problem with that.

Yammoto - 11 Sep 2015 12:07:53 (#7 of 4025)

Indeed, including most of this forum I suspect.

Intowntonight - 11 Sep 2015 12:08:34 (#8 of 4025)

Well the ones who don't work for RT or Press TV at least

tasselhoff - 11 Sep 2015 12:10:31 (#9 of 4025)

The people of Syria, or a lot of them, wanted democracy and change. They weren't manipulated into this by the West, it was an internal thing.

Sure. But they were actively piggy backed by well-armed forces supported from outside. They're the ones who kicked off.

Arjuna - 11 Sep 2015 12:10:36 (#10 of 4025)

At the time, the biggest criticism of the west was that they didn't do enough while Saudi Arabia and Iran were wading in arming their proxies.

Yammoto - 11 Sep 2015 12:10:59 (#11 of 4025)

Well, if it teaches our Govts they can't just kick the door in with a few missiles then walk away, it'll be a good lesson.

If Assad had been toppled a few years ago, Libya style, before ISIS got going, would that have been a better outcome?

tasselhoff - 11 Sep 2015 12:14:27 (#12 of 4025)

the biggest criticism of the west was that they didn't do enough while Saudi Arabia and Iran were wading in arming their proxies.

Except the US was also already planning regime change in 2006.

Yammoto - 11 Sep 2015 12:22:01 (#13 of 4025)

Cameron lost his Syria vote in August 2013 which led to Obama dropping the proposal.

ISIS took Mosul etc the following June and declared their caliphate.

So the question should be, did western dithering miss an opportunity?

SlasherBindman - 11 Sep 2015 12:24:18 (#14 of 4025)

It's all the fault of Edgonk Milislime.

Intowntonight - 11 Sep 2015 12:32:47 (#15 of 4025)



<<If Assad had been toppled a few years ago, Libya style, before ISIS got going, would that have been a better outcome?>>

A good question - but I doubt it - too many ethnicities in a country with a political "winner takes all" culture:

same for Iraq.

Thank you Sykes -Picot:

TinyMcOtter - 11 Sep 2015 12:33:00 (#16 of 4025)

The people of Syria, or a lot of them, wanted democracy and change.

Change, perhaps. Democracy? There is a huge mythical belief in the West, that all people in the middle east crave the same kinds of democratic institutions as the West.

I'm not sure that this is actually true. Support for 'strong man' led regimes is often very large and genuinely held.

Yammoto - 11 Sep 2015 12:34:38 (#17 of 4025)

Why blame Sykes-Picot? When the Ottoman Empire collapsed due to its own internal turk nationalist revolution?

Intowntonight - 11 Sep 2015 12:54:15 (#18 of 4025)

It was bundling geographic areas together to suit the needs of the UK and France, with barely a thought for the underlying ethnicities (a slight exception made for Lebanon).

The French didn't go in for Kings - the British did(except, of course, for Palestine)

In Syria, the Aluwites wanted their own state in 1946, but the French turned them down : so they took over the whole country in 1970 (Assads dad)

MestangloMan - 11 Sep 2015 13:03:43 (#19 of 4025)

During what the Israelis call the Second Lebanese War, circa the summer of 2006 pushing into 2007, there was a lot of talk out of D.C. about Assad returning to the "Arab fold." That meant away from the Iranian sphere of influence. I don't think even the most connected person in CIA would believe in those days that a street vendor in Tunisia setting himself aflame in December of 2010 would start the whole show off. Of course, there were flashpoints in Lebanon after Hariri was offed. Plus Iran in 09 prior to Ahmadinejad regaining power. Plus lots of discussion of frustration with Saddam Hussein from various quarters prior to the invasion in 03. And all sorts of talk about "Arab dictators."

But, no, Syria's troubles hit the fan in the wake of the beginnings of what became known as the Arab Spring. Assad looked around at Mubarak, who is in prison but has his life, and Gaddafi, who is with Ma Nature, and said, "Holy Crap. That could be me in that jail and on that slab."

Happy 9/11 Day, Nt/JtT.

Arjuna - 11 Sep 2015 13:07:47 (#20 of 4025)

Why blame Sykes-Picot?

Sykes-Picot didn't even create the border, its plain these lines don't correspond with the borders of the states involved.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sykes-Picot.svg

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