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Started by DarthBane on Jul 15, 2021 5:37:18 AM
Will a war likely break out between the USA and China over Taiwan?

China has been preparing militarily for a cross strait invasion for quite some time. China sees Taiwan as a rogue province. It seems to me like China used the Hong Kong crackdowns to see if the world will do anything, which it didn’t. Might this embolden China to invade the small Democratic Island, and could that provoke a confrontation with the US Pacific fleet?

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Geribaldi - 19 Jul 2021 18:08:24 (#1 of 411)

China threatens to nuke Japan:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/mili
tary/china-threatens-to-nuke-japan-if-country-intervenes-in-taiwan-conflict/news-story/d9af14dc6b90628082e79ab4c77629e1

WibbleAgain - 19 Jul 2021 18:11:31 (#2 of 411)

Sadly yes, I think more likely than not. It's a question of when.

China wants Taiwan "back", by any means. Xi may well use it as a diversion from China's internal problems.

I so desperately hope I'm wrong. I'm even shocked as I type this post.

browserbutton - 19 Jul 2021 18:13:07 (#3 of 411)

I don't think that they want to bomb it to pieces though -- they want the juicy assets, intact.

WibbleAgain - 19 Jul 2021 18:14:41 (#4 of 411)

They won't be able to take Taiwan without bombing it to pieces, because of the terrain.

Let's hope that deters war.

ReverendBlueJeans - 19 Jul 2021 18:15:39 (#5 of 411)

Ta, chaps, another existential threat to worry about.

stares into void

CarlosFandango - 19 Jul 2021 18:18:53 (#6 of 411)

My impression has always been that China is fully expecting to get it back sometime, and many Taiwanese see that as near-inevitable.

But I suppose that that was in the context of a less aggressive Beijing.

The Chinese are anything but stupid, and they won't kill the golden goose. And they've been actively aiding/sucking-in technical expertise and manufacturing nous from Taiwan for a decade or two. The business links are stronger than we might at first think.

If they do bomb Hsinchu to buggery then we're in for a bit of a tech hiatus.

jamalade - 19 Jul 2021 18:22:29 (#7 of 411)

Wibble has it, "terrain".

WibbleAgain - 19 Jul 2021 18:25:18 (#8 of 411)

I hope you're right, Carlos, but I don't see it that way.

The argument of the "golden goose" was made about HK for decades. Eventually China created 8(?) other mega cities to rival HK, plus lots of other political moves to enable it to "retake" HK. The rest is history.

At this moment, China is run by Xi, with an ultra macho aggressive stance. It's like a hungry tiger waiting to ponce.

Let's hope "events" will save the day, and neutralise the toxicity. But lots of other stuff is going on in China which is beefing it up rather than neutralise it.

CarlosFandango - 19 Jul 2021 18:30:04 (#9 of 411)

I hope so too. In lieu of bombing though, surely they'll just flip the switch on all that Huawei telecomms hardware and bring the place to a grinding halt?

In the field of genuinely leading-edge high-tech microchip production, China has precious little to rival Taiwan and anything more than mild sabre-rattling would see them whistling (even harder) for some of the critical (Japan, EU and American) equipment.

This is a decent summary: https://rhg.com/research/china-chips/

HouseOfLametta - 19 Jul 2021 18:42:39 (#10 of 411)

It's like a hungry tiger waiting to ponce.

Get you.

CarlosFandango - 19 Jul 2021 18:46:00 (#11 of 411)

Hahahaha. I missed that.

WibbleAgain - 19 Jul 2021 18:46:45 (#12 of 411)

China wants Taiwan "back" desperately. It trumps economic or tech considerations.

China is now strong enough - at least it firmly believe so - to do anything it likes. The only real opposition - USA - is at a very weak point. It's like "now or never" for them.

In addition, Taiwan has gone full democracy and functioning extremely well as a totally separate country, and that's a bigger threat and afront to China than anything else.

You have to understand China's mentality. It's not about whether it'd damage China economically or tech-wise. This isn't a cost/profit analysis. This is an existential issue for China, and must be defended at any cost.

China lived through extreme hardship and chaos, and they believe it's made them stronger. They're not afraid of an economic setback or two if it meant they could sort out the Taiwan problem once and all.

At a collective unconscious level, China still bears heavy and raw scars of western bullying in the 18th and 19th century, and the urge to avenge this humiliation is very powerful. It's about righting this wrong.

As far as China is concerned, Taiwan has been allowed to be what it is today because of American bullying. That must be put right, or it's not worth being China.

That's my analysis. It's extremely grim and I desperately pray the outcome proves I'm wrong.

CarlosFandango - 19 Jul 2021 18:52:27 (#13 of 411)

Yes, that is grim.

My tech point is not so much that it would damage China, but that were the supply of chips from Taiwan to be severely disrupted then we'd all - Americans included - be seriously affected.

WibbleAgain - 19 Jul 2021 18:54:42 (#14 of 411)

China doesn't care about western interests, especially when it comes to "retaking" Taiwan.

Of course when it happens it'd be horrible all round.

Atticus - 19 Jul 2021 18:55:12 (#15 of 411)

Maybe in a few decades as a demonstration she rules the Pacific.

Before that only as a domestic crisis management stunt. Basically the Falklands War on steroids.

thisonehasalittlehat - 19 Jul 2021 18:56:16 (#16 of 411)

At least we don't have a bone in this dog.

thisonehasalittlehat - 19 Jul 2021 18:56:27 (#17 of 411)

Think I've got that wrong.

WibbleAgain - 19 Jul 2021 18:56:45 (#18 of 411)

You think.

thisonehasalittlehat - 19 Jul 2021 18:56:48 (#19 of 411)

At least we don't have a dog in this fight.

CarlosFandango - 19 Jul 2021 19:47:37 (#20 of 411)

We kind of do, though.

Seriously, the proportion of top-techy stuff that comes out of Taiwan is surprising.

Sure iPhones and Androids and X-boxes and laptops and servers and WiFi routers are all made in China, and 99% of the chips therein are cheap jelly-beans that can be made 'anywhere' ... but the crucial CPU or GPU chips, the BSI-CMOS image sensors, the heart of many of those products are made in a small handful of facilities around the world.

I am very happy not to be very close to that industry anymore so am short on current numbers, but I have a feeling that were the Taiwanese wafer fabs to go offline, we'd feel it pretty quickly.

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