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Started by TinyMcOtter on 29-Sep-2017 12:44:52
Which way is the political wind blowing? Left wing? Right wing? Centre?

See Post #1

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TinyMcOtter - 29 Sep 2017 12:44:56 (#1 of 96)

The media seem to change their political narrative drastically, each time some election or major event occurs.

First, the left is on the rise, no the right, no the liberals, no wait, it's the left again, no woooah, it's the right, no hang about…

A couple of years ago the media were banging on about the right's control of Europe and the western world. Then, there were some large left wing movements in Spain and other places, so apparently there was a new left wing revival, then the right started winning in Hungary and other places, then Trump.

Then Europe was anti immigrant, no wait, the tide has turned, we are all welcoming them with tea and biscuits. Oh wait, it's all gone Daily Mail again.

Then it was the FN in France. But wait a minute, then Macron won, so it was a new swing to the centre and the end of the right. Also, a huge anti Trump movement. Then Corbyn and a new rise in the social democrats in Germany. Oh, hang about, the extreme right in Germany have got seats for the first time since the war, it's all doom and the right are rising across Europe again.

Then it's the end of austerity & racism, whoops no, it's started again...

I think that media pundits have changed their views about new surges one way or the other about a dozen times over the past couple of years alone and they seem able to fill dozens of articles with pundits confirming one narrative, then the other.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep
/29/right-social-democracy-dying-europe-afd-far-right-germany


I'd be interested in any media pundits and analysts with some consistent views. And what do people here think are the long term trends?

Jacob_Richter - 29 Sep 2017 12:50:41 (#2 of 96)

I don't think that there is a consistent trend - which partly explains media punditry inconsistency.

Simply, politics has become more unstable as the long term effects of the crash of 2007/8 have worked their way through into the political sphere with the neo-liberal solution of austerity being a dead-duck and, consequently, the political centre losing its credibility and moorings.

TinyMcOtter - 29 Sep 2017 12:52:43 (#3 of 96)

Do you think that effects of the crash of 2007/8 is that much more significant than other ones?

Did we ever really recover from the late 20 century crashes?

TinyMcOtter - 29 Sep 2017 12:55:17 (#4 of 96)

And I'm wondering really if we are seeing the beginnings of a serious battle between a new fascism (Hungary, France, Germany, Greece) and a new left (UK, France, Greece)?

I list some of those countries because some of them could go either way. But actually, all countries could. It's so hard to tell.

Jacob_Richter - 29 Sep 2017 12:56:12 (#5 of 96)

To an extent but not completely. This time, however, the much vaunted recovery is pathetic, comes nowhere near restoring economies to pre-crash levels and doesn't look like ever doing so.

browserbutton - 29 Sep 2017 12:57:20 (#6 of 96)

Populism (in its various forms) and social media ranting has clouded some of the traditional distinctions between left, right and centre. There has also been a rise in 'managed democracy' which suggests that the will of the people is becoming easier to manipulate.

Jacob_Richter - 29 Sep 2017 12:59:08 (#7 of 96)

#6

You see, I'd say the opposite: the means for traditional ruling classes, elites, call them what you will, to control narrative has diminished considerbaly.

WibbleAgain - 29 Sep 2017 12:59:14 (#8 of 96)

Which way is the political wind blowing?

in every direction. Up, down, left, right and centre, plus north, northeast, east, southeast, south, southwest, west, northwest.

Jacob_Richter - 29 Sep 2017 12:59:43 (#9 of 96)

Yes - very much in flux.

TinyMcOtter - 29 Sep 2017 13:01:59 (#10 of 96)

You see, I'd say the opposite: the means for traditional ruling classes, elites, call them what you will, to control narrative has diminished considerbaly.



Which is why they are clamping down on online communication. Increased monitoring in the democracies and outright banning in less democratic places.

They are trying to find a balance for control, without stopping the whole thing. It will probably happen sooner rather than later.

Faraway - 29 Sep 2017 13:05:24 (#11 of 96)

You see, I'd say the opposite: the means for traditional ruling classes, elites, call them what you will, to control narrative has diminished considerably.

And rightly so. But they won't stop trying. What people need to (keep) do(ing) is think for themselves and not allow themselves to be swayed by the media, in any direction.

TRaney - 29 Sep 2017 13:34:49 (#12 of 96)

What people need to (keep) do(ing) is think for themselves

All indications so far are that’s exactly what the are doing. Definitely not bovinely following ignorant blowhards.

Moschops - 29 Sep 2017 13:39:08 (#13 of 96)

in every direction.

Yep, just away from the centre mainly.

RosyLovelady - 29 Sep 2017 13:39:53 (#14 of 96)

The centre is the new extreme.

TRaney - 29 Sep 2017 13:41:21 (#15 of 96)

I always wanted to be an extremist but was to wet.

WibbleAgain - 29 Sep 2017 17:00:18 (#16 of 96)

Yep, just away from the centre mainly.

Well, centre is boring, innit, and basically supports the status quo. There is massive discontent everywhere, and the traditionally passive and submissive decided to stick it to the man and voted Brexit.

I honestly don't think the status quo - what we're used to and take for granted - is sustainable for much longer. Chaos is bound to happen. Hence all bets are off, basically, even without Brexit.

I fear war in my life time. And I'm an optimist.

virgil5 - 29 Sep 2017 17:13:27 (#17 of 96)

The court jester maybe got the throne for a day back inna daze of yore, a but now low-hanging fruit of Democracy can misrule the "Free World" for 4 years

Progress!

Bleu11 - 09 Oct 2017 16:33:33 (#18 of 96)

Center - towards the selfish me. Large number of people still mostly think local and act local.

People mostly support what benefits them (but they also have a built-in sense of what 'public' behavior can affect everyone and needs to be curtailed.)

There is also the group effect. People's behavior is a matter of signs they receive from others (and then weighing them against a selfish calculation based on other people's calculations.)

Creating political categories such as left and right are useful to understand the movements but human psychology and economics probably tell us more about why we fall into certain categories at certain times.

Lento_ - 09 Oct 2017 16:49:02 (#19 of 96)

On a long term time scale I think we are still in a multi-decade long rightwards drift. What's happening in the shorter term isn't a change in direction on the left-right scale, but more a growth in backlash against existing establishments.

What we're seeing in things like the election of Trump, Brexit, FN, perhaps even Catalan independence isn't driven by a resurgence in an ideology of positive change e.g. "lets implement X", but more a negative change e.g. "lets break Y and hope the replacement is better".

Unfortunately that long term trend is also at play in the background, causing a lot of these calls for change (although not all) to take the form of small steps to the right.

moto748 - 09 Oct 2017 16:56:37 (#20 of 96)

The court jester maybe got the throne for a day back inna daze of yore

MM stole your log-in, virg?

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