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Started by TinyMcOtter on Mar 11, 2019 10:21:37 AM
Did austerity cause Brexit? Research paper.

http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106313/

This paper shows that the rise of popular support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as the single most important correlate of the subsequent Leave vote in the 2016 European Union (EU) referendum, along with broader measures of political dissatisfaction, are strongly and causally associated with an individual’s or an area’s exposure to austerity since 2010.

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TinyMcOtter - 11 Mar 2019 10:23:23 (#1 of 60)

The results suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted in a Remain victory had it not been for a range of austerity-induced welfare reforms.

Further, auxiliary results suggest that the welfare reforms activated existing underlying economic grievances that have broader origins than what the current literature on Brexit suggests. Up until 2010, the UK’s welfare state evened out growing income differences across the skill divide through transfer payments. This pattern markedly stops from 2010 onwards as austerity started to bite.

bailliegillies - 11 Mar 2019 10:42:50 (#2 of 60)

I think austerity is only one part of the story, which is a broad picture and that it started in 1979 and not 2010. It encompasses so many things that have happened since then, Globalisation, the destruction of industry, nationalisation, selling off of assets, slow demolition of the NHS and the welfare state, large scale immigration, Gig economy. They're all part of what made people vote for Brexit.

guigal - 11 Mar 2019 10:48:22 (#3 of 60)

They're all part of what made people vote for Brexit.

It's ironic that being unable to adapt to change should cause people to vote for the revolutionary changes that result from leaving the EU.

bailliegillies - 11 Mar 2019 10:51:31 (#4 of 60)

Why is it ironic as there are plenty of precedents, though usually a lot more violent. People were left behind and felt abandoned, wealth was concentrated in one small part of the country and flaunted. How do you think people are going to feel?

This is a wider problem than the UK, just look at the number of populist leaders who are coming to the fore, who are appealing to the anti globalists and supporting the nationalists.

guigal - 11 Mar 2019 11:01:18 (#5 of 60)

wealth was concentrated in one small part of the country and flaunted.

When Nigel Farage gave his victory speech from a gilded staircase at the Ritz, the cheering was from people who expected to do well out of Brexit. Brexit is a revolt by the many to benefit the few.

bailliegillies - 11 Mar 2019 11:09:29 (#6 of 60)

Brexit is a revolt by the many to benefit the few.



I certainly can't argue with that but given the amount of lies and bullshit promises the country was fed by those who will benefit it comes as no surprise that people voted the way they did.

TheVoiceOfReason - 11 Mar 2019 11:12:46 (#7 of 60)

Did something I don’t like cause something else I don’t like? Yes it did! Hurrah! I’m a Good Person.

TinyMcOtter - 11 Mar 2019 11:14:55 (#8 of 60)

#2

Agreed. Indeed, what became ‘austerity’ (and now, what some economists have called, class war), was just one phase in the dismantling of the welfare state and the ideological debate implementation of trickle down economics, among other monstrosities.

FleurDuMal - 11 Mar 2019 11:19:22 (#9 of 60)

Did something I don’t like cause something else I don’t like? Yes it did! Hurrah! I’m a Good Person.

Slightly more complex, Patters.

Historians will tend to look at all the contributory factors, before formulating a theory. Austerity is a strong contributory factor, but also, the media obfuscation around Europe for the last few decades is very important.

bailliegillies - 11 Mar 2019 11:22:16 (#10 of 60)

People were told that we were taking back control and that Parliament would be sovereign and the country would benefit and there would be a new golden age. People wanted to believe and the conmen played on their hopes and dreams, which is what they do. Basically the public were suckered!

FleurDuMal - 11 Mar 2019 11:22:45 (#11 of 60)

That.

Lawlsie - 11 Mar 2019 11:24:23 (#12 of 60)

Many Brexit voters were well-off Tories living in the shires and longing for Britain to be All White Again. So no, austerity didn't cause Brexit. Xenophobia, an island mentality and years of war stories are much more likely to be the cause.

FleurDuMal - 11 Mar 2019 11:29:22 (#13 of 60)

Austerity was a contributory factor - one of many, as I pointed out above. Basically it came about because of a perfect storm - racism, austerity, lies, etc.

Part of the narrative of austerity was that people couldn't get jobs or doctors' appointments was because of all the forrins 'flooding in' and getting preferential treatment: as I said, lies were an important factor.

Lawlsie - 11 Mar 2019 11:30:21 (#14 of 60)

But in the shires, none of that applied Fleur. Well-off pensioners who voted Tory were most likely to vote for Brexit.

TinyMcOtter - 11 Mar 2019 11:31:38 (#15 of 60)

If only it was possible to not have a binary view of things.

TinyMcOtter - 11 Mar 2019 11:33:53 (#16 of 60)

Austerity was a contributory factor - one of many, as I pointed out above. Basically it came about because of a perfect storm - racism, austerity, lies, etc.



Indeed. And, of course, many of those and other factors are interlinked.

And yes, there’s also some pensioners in the shires, apparently.

bailliegillies - 11 Mar 2019 11:38:44 (#17 of 60)

But in the shires, none of that applied Fleur. Well-off pensioners who voted Tory were most likely to vote for Brexit.



How many immigrants can afford to live in the shires, compared to London and the north of England. I'd say the shires are probably the last place in Britain to have any problems with immigrants and any that are capable of affording to move into those communities will have been well and truly absorbed into that way of life.

FleurDuMal - 11 Mar 2019 11:43:33 (#18 of 60)

The fact that what you say is patently true, does not mean that those people don't have a paranoia about 'foreigners' coming over here and changing our culture.

returnofthepowermonkey - 11 Mar 2019 11:46:09 (#19 of 60)

he referendum was won by 1%. That makes every possible reason for supporting it decisive.

TheVoiceOfReason - 11 Mar 2019 11:46:33 (#20 of 60)

And, you know, people in “the shires” do actually travel to cities where there’s been lots of immigration, which is why this well-worn “OMG idiots the areas that have no immigration voted against it LOL” observation is so ridiculous.

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