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Started by YorenInTheNorth on Aug 11, 2019 10:01:41 PM
Political Polls

Thread to post political polls for the UK.

State of the parties, Remain vs Leave and other questions.

I'll post some recent ones and will then aim to keep this updated as new polls emerge.

Enjoy.

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CaptainBlack - 11 Aug 2019 22:03:30 (#1 of 103)

Can I be the first to complain about spam?

YorenInTheNorth - 11 Aug 2019 22:04:13 (#2 of 103)

Two national polls and a best PM poll published this week.

Britain Elects (@britainelects) Tweeted:Westminster voting intention:

CON: 31% (-1)LAB: 22% (-)LDEM: 21% (+2)BREX: 14% (+1)GRN: 7% (-1)

via @YouGov, 05 - 06 AugChgs. w/ 30 Jul https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/115943441
2997652483?s=17


Britain Elects (@britainelects) Tweeted:Westminster voting intention:

CON: 31% (+1)LAB: 28% (-)BREX: 16% (+1)LDEM: 13% (-3)GRN: 5% (-)

via @OpiniumResearchChgs. w/ 26 Jul https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/116027787
4626183170?s=17


Britain Elects (@britainelects) Tweeted:On who would make best Prime Minister:

B. Johnson: 30%J. Corbyn: 16%J. Swinson: 11%N. Farage: 10%

via @OpiniumResearch, 08 - 09 Aug https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/116048245
7113825280?s=17

YorenInTheNorth - 11 Aug 2019 22:07:03 (#3 of 103)

#1

https://youtu.be/mBcY3W5WgNU

SinnerBoy - 11 Aug 2019 22:11:56 (#4 of 103)

Why does YouGov have consistently lower numbers for Labour, contrary to other polls?

And CB, stop it. People have asked for this thread, to avoid having the same polls posted to numerous other ones.

Thanks.

YorenInTheNorth - 11 Aug 2019 22:19:03 (#5 of 103)

#4

Here is a Twitter thread on that subject by Anthony Wells (Yougov);

https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/115219893
4267387905?s=17

SinnerBoy - 11 Aug 2019 22:57:43 (#6 of 103)

That's interesting, but it doesn't explain why You Gov are consistently different, by a long way, from all other polls.

It's almost as if they have an agenda.

YorenInTheNorth - 11 Aug 2019 22:59:52 (#7 of 103)

It potentially does. Yougov use the May 2017 records. The others use live records (which are subject to recall bias).

What we don't know is if the weighting of the others is thus being thrown out by it as we have not yet had a comparable national election.

YorenInTheNorth - 11 Aug 2019 23:02:14 (#8 of 103)

In the Euro Polls every poller bar Yougov and Ipso/Mori hugely overestimated Labour's support by 5-10 points.

mikeshadow - 11 Aug 2019 23:09:58 (#9 of 103)

Based on polls from 24 July to 27 July Electoral Calculus has the Tories 15 seats short of a majority.

Significant predicted increase in seats for a resurgent LibDems and more for the SNP too.

No seats predicted for the Brexit Party.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

dottie30 - 12 Aug 2019 06:27:34 (#10 of 103)

That calculation gives them 5 short if the DUP is factored in.

I would say they'd try to govern in a minority government in that scenario.

I can't understand why the Alliance party in NI hasn't capitalised on the DUP's position. I would think there are people who wouldn't vote Sinn Fein under any circumstances who are crying out for another party to vote for.

bignosebignose - 12 Aug 2019 06:52:19 (#11 of 103)

That's interesting, but it doesn't explain why You Gov are consistently different, by a long way, from all other polls.

It's almost as if they have an agenda.

Heh, did you read the thread? Right to the end?

...but that took 17 tweets to explain, when "Pollster A is biased and run by lizards, I only listen to Pollster B who is the most accurate" takes just one.

HorstVogel - 12 Aug 2019 08:24:00 (#12 of 103)

subscribes

GyratingTrampoline - 12 Aug 2019 08:33:54 (#13 of 103)

In the last 3 important national votes (2015 GE, brexit referendum, 2017 GE) the result was different to what the polls predicted, and all the reams of discussion and commentary based on these incorrect polls turned out to be a complete waste of pixels.

Is there any reason to expect this losing streak might be overturned next time? I suspect the opposite given the increased volatility of the situation.

dottie30 - 12 Aug 2019 12:30:56 (#14 of 103)

There was one poll which was correct last election. A YouGov poll which predicted a hung parliament.

And the exit polls have been bang on right.

dottie30 - 12 Aug 2019 12:33:53 (#15 of 103)

In fact that YouGov poll pretty much had it spot on.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/31/y
ougov-poll-predicting-hung-parliament-brave

breakfast - 12 Aug 2019 12:35:27 (#16 of 103)

Nope. That was their new election model thingy. They hedged their bets and their traditional poll showed a Tory majority.

GyratingTrampoline - 12 Aug 2019 12:36:48 (#17 of 103)

There was one poll which was correct last election



One of many. Assuming that one of the current polls is also correct, how are we to know which one?

YorenInTheNorth - 12 Aug 2019 12:38:52 (#18 of 103)

#16

Though I believe they now use the new method for their polls.

breakfast - 12 Aug 2019 12:39:55 (#19 of 103)

Survation got closest last time via traditional polling. And their owner was a UKIP supporter so I have no time for complaints about yougov being biased because of who runs it.

The companies use different weighting methods and it's probably a matter of luck which one lands on the right method.

When an election is up and running and yougov do their new model thingy again I would pay attention to that.

breakfast - 12 Aug 2019 12:41:41 (#20 of 103)

#18

I don't think they can. They are completely different approaches to predicting the outcome. The model is constituency based.

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