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Started by crabbyoldbat on Sep 6, 2019 1:10:34 PM
Autumn 2019 Election - speculation and theorising

Not so much when, as

  • what strategies
  • which voters will vote for what
  • which seats are vulnerable
  • where there'll be split votes
  • etc.

Here's and interesting piece to start the discussion:

Emphatically not a thread to discuss the minutiae of the merits or otherwise of Corbyn.

crabbyoldbat - 06 Sep 2019 13:22:00 (#1 of 54)

From the Brexit thread:

Kucinghitam - 06 Sep 2019 13:08:53 ( #10754 of 10756) Well, this is depressing:


"Updated with all the latest national polls, if the Brexit Party and Conservatives enter a functional pact arrangement versus Remain Unity candidates the Leave side will be looking at a potential 489 seats in Parliament versus 143 to Remain’s coalition with Labour nowhere."

"However, if no pact or unity arrangements are made, Parliament would potentially take this form:

Con: 382

Lab: 148

SNP: 52

LD: 27

GRN: 13

PC: 10

Brexit Party take a healthy portion of the vote but gain no seats on current polling, impacting both Tories and Labour."

crabbyoldbat - 06 Sep 2019 13:22:27 (#2 of 54)

This is seemingly contradicted by:

% of 2017 Labour vote now voting Lib Dem

Overall: 15%-24%

Ipsos 20%

YouGov 18%

Survation 24%

Deltapoll 16%

Opinium 15%

Kantar 18%

BMG 20%

ComRes 15%

Key question: these are large numbers considering Lab got 40% in 2017. Can Lab squeeze these voters or are they lost for good?

% of 2017 Labour vote now voting Brexit party

Overall: 1%-11%

Ipsos 3%

YouGov 8%

Survation 8%

Deltapoll 6%

Opinium 11%

Kantar 1%

BMG 7%

ComRes 9%

Key question: what is the true figure and will it grow in an election where Labour is vocally supporting a 2nd referendum?

crabbyoldbat - 06 Sep 2019 13:22:38 (#3 of 54)

% of 2017 Con vote now voting Lib Dem

Overall: 6%-11%

Ipsos 8%

YouGov 7%

Survation 11%

Deltapoll 8%

Opinium 6%

Kantar 6%

BMG 10%

ComRes 8%

Key question: Just how many votes will Cons lose to the Lib Dems in a General Election - and where?

% of 2017 Con vote now voting Brexit party

Overall: 7%-21%

Ipsos 8%

YouGov 14%

Survation 19%

Deltapoll 18%

Opinium 21%

Kantar 7%

BMG 16%

ComRes: 20%

Key question: just how much can the Tories squeeze the Brexit party vote? Will there be a pact or will it all fall apart?

dottie30 - 06 Sep 2019 13:24:38 (#4 of 54)

Since my predictions are always notoriously wrong, I would like to now predict Boris romping home with a 250 seat majority.

tasselhoff - 06 Sep 2019 13:32:25 (#5 of 54)

I think the longer Boris' clown show stays in power, the better the chance he gets marmalised in an election.

HouseOfLametta - 06 Sep 2019 13:38:33 (#6 of 54)


crabbyoldbat - 06 Sep 2019 13:43:14 (#7 of 54)

And it looks like he'll be forced to stay beyond 31st Oct. But there will be an election this autumn at some point.

widenation - 06 Sep 2019 13:44:45 (#8 of 54)

I'm guessing Carrie Symonds will be prone to a fair few gaffes as well - not that Johnson needs any assistance at present.

TheExcession - 06 Sep 2019 13:46:17 (#9 of 54)

Those polls don't account for tactical voting though. I'd be suprised if many Remain voters would vote Lib Dem if the local Labour candidate stood a decent chance of beating the Tory.

crabbyoldbat - 06 Sep 2019 13:46:59 (#10 of 54)

I think it's interesting how clearly the figures above show that Labour have lost most supporters to LibDems and Tories most to Brexit Party. So, in theory, Labour should have Remain policy to keep what they gained in 2017 (and maybe gain more)

Actually, I reckon the next election will probably by lost by the Tories, rather than won by Labour. Or some leftish coalition.

crabbyoldbat - 06 Sep 2019 13:50:57 (#11 of 54)

Those polls don't account for tactical voting though

I agree, elections are won on marginals at this point, aren't they?

I live in a Labour constituency with so large a majority that a vote for LibDems or Green would mean nothing. Happily, my Labour MP is so remain that she voted against implementing Article50. But I can vote in a Green local councillor, and LibDem MEP. But it does make me a bit of a bystander in a GE.

thisonehasalittlehat - 06 Sep 2019 13:59:53 (#12 of 54)

I think the possible margin at the moment is Labour as the largest party but short of a majority (perhaps 280 seats) at one end and tories with a small majority (perhaps 340 seats) at the other end. But that's at the moment and this is a terribly tricky one to predict because a) we don't know how much the brexit party will be a factor, and b) we don't know how much the lib dems would be a factor. So that's the range. Now here is my wild guess.

thisonehasalittlehat - 06 Sep 2019 14:08:19 (#13 of 54)

I don't think farage is interested in a pact with the tories. I think he's stringing them along. He's a narcissist and he sees his role as the thorn in the side of the establishment. Therefore I think they'll find some excuse to not have a pact. Probably this will be a lack of commitment from the tories to just go for no deal. If that's the case I reckon the brexit party could take a whacking great chunk of tory votes from them. Particularly if the tories continue to be boxed-in on Brexit in the way they are, and particularly if Johnson has to break his do or die promise of the 31st. Another leader won't help the tories, as they already have the one tory who is most associated with brexit in charge, so if he resigns it's basically game over for them (we'll come back to the whole question if there's an interim government as that changes things). The tories are going to get wiped out in scotland, they're not going to recover in London. They will probably pick up more seats than they lose in England, but I reckon that still puts them about 20+ seats down on, let's say, 280-90.

Labour I think will do better than 2015 but not as well as 2017 so they'll be down a bunch in scotland, and probable down in england but they'll be a few exchanges (e.g. they'll pick up hastings but probably lost canterbury again; they may get reading west and keep reading east but might lost a couple of london seats). I'd put them 10 down on about 235 - 240.

Lib dems are going to do well; they'll pick up 15 maybe putting them around 30 or so. SNP will be up of course. Few like for likes in wales. NI will do what it does.

So my guess is hung parliament, tories largest party but without a coalition partner. Labour, SNP and LDs possibly building on recent work to put together a short lived coalition that will implement a referendum in scotland and in the UK. Two years max then election in Spring 2021 or 2022.

Dayraven - 06 Sep 2019 14:16:43 (#14 of 54)

I don't think farage is interested in a pact with the tories.

I also wonder just how easy it would be to provide Brexit Party voters to the Tories -- some will either refuse to transfer, or not vote, and that could be a significant amount.

crabbyoldbat - 06 Sep 2019 14:17:27 (#15 of 54)

I agree Farage will string the Tories along and won't do a pact, and for the reasons you've given. And even if he does, they're such a rabble that they'll uncontrollably, individually renege, candidates and voters.

thisonehasalittlehat - 06 Sep 2019 14:19:04 (#16 of 54)

I wonder if Farage really wants brexit. It would kind of be the end of him, in many ways. What's the point of farage after brexit?

crabbyoldbat - 06 Sep 2019 14:19:14 (#17 of 54)

Is there any hope for a reduced DUP in NI? That would reduce the Tories pool of potential coalition partners?

crabbyoldbat - 06 Sep 2019 14:22:11 (#18 of 54)

What's the point of farage after brexit?

- after brexit

IMO, he wants to be able to moan, look influential by hob-nobbing with leaders, and collect his EU salary and pension. Oh, and to not actually have to DO anything

thisonehasalittlehat - 06 Sep 2019 14:23:26 (#19 of 54)

Like Robbie Williams he's tried to break america but with not much success.

scottscott - 06 Sep 2019 14:25:36 (#20 of 54)

Boris won't get his general election => During prorogation, he refuses to ask Brussels for an extension => The clock ticks down to Oct 31st => Parliment returns => A vote of no confidence brings Tories down => A rainbow alliance of opposition parties form an emergency Government => Bond-like, they halt the ticking clock => Negotiations with the EU reopen => Referendum held offering New Deal vs. Remain.

That's my hope.

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