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Started by TigerPaws on Apr 10, 2020 5:19:03 PM
The consequences of Lockdown for the UK economy, trade relations, employment, debt, prices and inflation.

There's no shortage of economists predicting a recession far worse than the 2008 banking crisis. Is this inevitable?

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DesEsseintes - 10 Apr 2020 19:20:10 (#1 of 39)

People will have a party this weekend, but after that I suspect there'll be the square root of one knows what.

mingmong - 10 Apr 2020 19:32:08 (#2 of 39)

There will be an economic hit, maybe two or three years of recession or sluggish growth.

But I'd be surprised if it went on longer than that. Modern economies bounce back quickly.

Cultural and political impacts may also be less significant than expected. Humanity has a great capacity to bounce back, failing to learn anything along the way.

There may be a temporary tilt towards collectivism - out of necessity as much as anything else. I hope the next Labour government makes the best of this, and (like the Attlee gvt after WWII) uses this interlude to make some positive long-lasting changes to this country. But it wouldn't entirely surprise me if the opportunity is missed - through a lack of imagination and political courage

On a human interpersonal level, I don't think much will really change. We will soon be packing the bars, airports and shopping malls just as we were doing before. The whole CV19 thing will leave a few distinctive traces on the cultural memory. Lockdown nostalgia will be a thing, a bit like the fabled blitz spirit. Chiefly a way of making succeeding generations feel like they missed out on something authentic and essential

indlovubill - 10 Apr 2020 20:51:57 (#3 of 39)

I hope the next Labour government makes the best of this, and (like the Attlee gvt after WWII)



Bomb sites still to be seen in the cities twenty years after the war ended, and they didn't close down the factories and pubs during WWII

guigal - 10 Apr 2020 21:01:11 (#4 of 39)

#2

Economies did not get back to normal all that quickly after the Great Depression that began in 2008.

mingmong - 10 Apr 2020 21:12:50 (#5 of 39)

In some ways that was worse. It was systematic, hitting confidence, which is the big driver of capitalist economies. CvV19, while being harder hitting in so e ways, is nonetheless an extrinsic problem. I might be wrong, but I reckon the recovery will be easier, unless it's knock-on effects create some other unforeseen horror-show

carterbrandon - 10 Apr 2020 21:14:43 (#6 of 39)

Bomb sites still to be seen in the cities twenty years after the war ended,

Thirty, at least. In my experience.

airynothing - 10 Apr 2020 21:16:27 (#7 of 39)

But that was because they were spending money on more important things, like education and health. I’m sure the bomb sites would have been more of a priority for a conservative government.

Shadrack22 - 10 Apr 2020 21:32:26 (#8 of 39)

The whole CV19 thing will leave a few distinctive traces on the cultural memory. Lockdown nostalgia will be a thing

Funny you say that Ming. When it is time to return to the office, I’m expecting to have that childhood Sunday evening feeling of ‘school tomorrow’ dread. (I know that is easy to say when you haven’t been furloughed or made redundant).

DesEsseintes - 10 Apr 2020 21:42:59 (#9 of 39)

Post Corona Syndrome will be a thing, I think. Of those that have something to go back to, many will not be able to do it anymore.

TRaney - 10 Apr 2020 21:43:40 (#10 of 39)

That's a good point

guigal - 10 Apr 2020 22:23:41 (#11 of 39)

#5

Hedge fund manager, Crispin Odey, like other disaster capitalists, foresees major political and social disruption. It's the 1930s all over again, with the potential for the rise of fascist dictators. Who knows, but it's not implausible that emergency measures, putting power in the hands of the 'authorities, may be prolonged indefinitely. Or be taken over by 'a man of the people' who exploits discontent with politicians handling of the crisis and its consequences.

carterbrandon - 10 Apr 2020 23:19:49 (#12 of 39)

If it results in Crispin Odey fleeing in terror from a howling mob, it won't be all bad.

mingmong - 10 Apr 2020 23:23:49 (#13 of 39)

Guigal, the likes of Odey will just be cashing in by buying up loads of cheap stock. I must admit that I myself (on a much smaller scale) have been doing the same. I don't think any investors, large or small, have got that much interest in anything other than a restoration of something like the status quo. And the boring truth is that is probably what will happen.

There are of course numerous unforeseeables, of course, and thats where the wheels could come off. The dollar tanking epically would have global reprecussions. Great, in the short-term, for gold-bugs like Odey, but it could easily slip out of control.

browserbutton - 11 Apr 2020 06:28:36 (#14 of 39)

a restoration of something like the status quo

So full steam ahead for Brexit Blighty.

CaptainBlack - 11 Apr 2020 08:18:58 (#15 of 39)

I trust our Dear Leader not to do something reckless, certainly not while blustering how amazing it will be and that there’s absolutely nothing to worry about.



We’re fucking doomed.

BBBilly - 11 Apr 2020 08:40:55 (#16 of 39)

There will be a change in working patterns for those who can work from home. The shift to flexible working will be accelerated by Covid. People may not want to WFH full time, but 2 or 3 days per week will be attractive in terms of cost saving and work-life balance. Companies will also see the chance of reducing office size and costs.

A side effect of this will be a downturn in business for those serving the commuting office worker, from transport companies to cafes.

browserbutton - 11 Apr 2020 08:43:45 (#17 of 39)

Maybe people will stop jetting around the world for business meetings, but I think it unlikely.

"Who wants to Zoom, when whizzing is much more of a wheeze!"

HerrWalrus - 11 Apr 2020 08:46:00 (#18 of 39)

People may not want to WFH full time, but 2 or 3 days per week will be attractive in terms of cost saving and work-life balance.

A decrease in air and noise pollution in city centres is another consequence. Not that we'll notice, as once restrictions are lifted the traffic will surge in comparison to current numbers.

dottie30 - 11 Apr 2020 08:49:02 (#19 of 39)

Maybe people will stop jetting around the world for business meetings, but I think it unlikely.



I don't know. I work for a company where people travel a lot. And in truth, people have always been resentful of it. Particularly when they have families. I do think we're looking at a greater questioning of whether travel is really necessary in future.

BBBilly - 11 Apr 2020 08:51:48 (#20 of 39)

The government might wake up to the fact that projects designed to move large numbers of people between crowded city hubs (HS2) might not be the best use of resources. Upgrading our broadband infrastructure to enable more WFH would be a better option.

Also, tech companies will be investing in the software that enables this, now that they see the chance of a much larger market.

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